The Pentagon just sent a third aircraft carrier to the Middle East — and the timing is not a coincidence.
Geopolitics Iran secretly got a U.S. peace offer 48 hours after Trump said "no" — and oil hasn't priced it yet.
Tech The most powerful CEOs in tech just signed a 300-word document with no legal force — and that's exactly what they came for.
Tech The most powerful CEOs in AI are at the White House today at 12:30 — here's what the guest list tells you about federal AI procurement for the next two years 29 September 2026
Geopolitics "Losing badly" — two words that closed the Iran deal window and set your October CPI trajectory 28 September 2026
Geopolitics Three hard dates now control your portfolio: October 9, November 4, January 10 — here's what each one means 25 September 2026
Geopolitics The two most powerful leaders in the world meet today — here's what it means for your grocery bill, your 401(k), and a deadline you've never heard of called January 10. 24 September 2026
Geopolitics Three hours in New York changed the Iran war timeline — here's the two details to watch in the follow-up meeting announcement 23 September 2026
11 meetings, one day, one outcome that moves oil tomorrow — here's which one to watch. 22 September 2026
Geopolitics Trump just said he's in 'decision mode' on Iran — and whatever he decides moves oil, rates, and your retirement account in one direction or another. 21 September 2026
Geopolitics The Tuesday Gulf leaders meeting is the real decision gate — not the Axios interview. Here's what to watch. 18 September 2026
Fed Policy The first rate hike since July 2023 just landed — here's what the 12–0 vote, the December dot, and your bond fund mean New Fed Funds Rate 3.75–4.0% Vote 12–0 Dow Jones −614 pts Trump's Target Rate "1% or less" By Arthur Callahan 17 Sep 2026
The 10-year hit 5% yesterday for the first time since 2007 — today at 2:00 PM Warsh either confirms it or reverses it Hike Probability 93% Decision At 2:00 PM 10-Year Yield 5.04% Dovish Surprise Risk Largest Ever In freight auditing, there is one day By Arthur Callahan 16 Sep 2026
Economy Tomorrow at 2:00 PM the Dot Plot drops — that's the number that actually matters, not the hike Hike Probability 93% Decision In ~26 hrs 10-Year Yield 4.98% Brent Crude $107.80 In freight, the most dangerous moment in a negotiation By Arthur Callahan 15 Sep 2026
Trump picked Warsh for Fed chair and told him to cut rates — in 48 hours we find out who wins In the freight business, there is a principle called rate independence: the carrier sets the price based on fuel costs, capacity, and demand — not based By Arthur Callahan 14 Sep 2026
