Fed Policy The first rate hike since July 2023 just landed — here's what the 12–0 vote, the December dot, and your bond fund mean New Fed Funds Rate 3.75–4.0% Vote 12–0 Dow Jones −614 pts Trump's Target Rate "1% or less" By Arthur Callahan 17 Sep 2026
Economy Tomorrow at 2:00 PM the Dot Plot drops — that's the number that actually matters, not the hike Hike Probability 93% Decision In ~26 hrs 10-Year Yield 4.98% Brent Crude $107.80 In freight, the most dangerous moment in a negotiation By Arthur Callahan 15 Sep 2026
Economy Warsh said he is not constrained by market prices — this morning we find out if he meant it In freight operations, the annual rate review is the moment everyone has been working toward for twelve months. The carriers know their costs. The shippers By Arthur Callahan 28 Aug 2026
Economy Senate Bargaining and IRS Audit Shields: Deconstructing the DOJ's Settlement Retreat On Monday afternoon, August 3, the Department of Justice executed a sharp administrative retreat. Acting U.S. Attorney General Todd Blanche officially issued a binding, By Arthur Callahan 4 Aug 2026
Geopolitics Two Senators Down: The Federal Budget Just Hit a Brick Wall. Last week, an experienced procurement manager at an industrial plant off Route 9 asked me a direct question. He looked at the federal contract pipelines By Arthur Callahan 13 Jul 2026
Economy The 927-Page Disclosure: Inside Washington’s Escalating Oversight War Last week, a 927-page financial disclosure dropped on Capitol Hill. It revealed over $2.2 billion in assets and income. Crucially, more than $1. By Arthur Callahan 8 Jul 2026
Fed Policy The Warsh Defiance: Why Trump’s Fed Pick Just Blew Up the Soft-Landing Narrative If you are allocating capital under the assumption that a handpicked Federal Reserve Chair will automatically prioritize the political goals of the White House over By Arthur Callahan 29 Jun 2026
Fed Policy Alan Greenspan Passed Away at 100. He Left You the Inflation. The mainstream financial press has spent the last 24 hours printing pre-formatted hagiographies. Alan Greenspan, the long-serving Chairman of the Federal Reserve who By Arthur Callahan 23 Jun 2026
Fed Policy The Fed Just Flipped the Script on Your Retirement On June 17, 2026, the Federal Reserve quietly admitted what anyone tracking the real economy already knew: inflation is structurally entrenched, and the financial system By Arthur Callahan 18 Jun 2026
Fed Policy Warsh has spoken: Why Wall Street is cheering and you should be checking your statements Kevin Warsh has just wrapped up his first major address as Chair of the Federal Reserve. While the trading desks on Wall Street are popping By Arthur Callahan 18 Jun 2026
